What is the tcgvibes Index Family?

A structural measurement layer above per-card price guides. Each set in scope produces a Vibe Score from 1 to 10 indicating intra-set price coordination, with a direction indicator. Designed for shop operators, market analysts, and informed collectors.

How does this differ from a price guide?

Price guides report per-card values. The tcgvibes Index Family measures structural movement across cohorts of cards within a set, partitioned by game, locale, grade, and vintage. The output is a signal about market behavior, not a number for any single card.

Is this a price prediction or trading recommendation?

No. The Index Family is a structural benchmark. It does not forecast prices and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past structural movement does not indicate future market behavior.

When will the full methodology be published?

The full technical methodology document is in review. This page is the executive summary until publication.

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tcgvibes Index Family Methodology

Executive summary · v0.1 published 2026-05-12

The tcgvibes Index Family measures structural movement across sets of tradable trading cards. It is designed for shop operators, market analysts, and informed collectors who need a signal layer above the per-card price guides that dominate the secondary market.

This page is the executive summary. The full technical document is in review.

1 · Coverage

Six trading card games at the set level: Pokémon, Magic: The Gathering, Yu-Gi-Oh!, Lorcana, One Piece, and Flesh and Blood. Each set produces a Vibe Score from 1 to 10 per published cycle, with a direction indicator (heating, cooling, drifting).

2 · Cohort partition

Cards within a set are not measured in aggregate. They are partitioned into cohort cells along four axes:

Game — Pokémon, Magic: The Gathering, Yu-Gi-Oh!, Lorcana, One Piece, Flesh and Blood (six values, per Section 1)
Locale — en-US (English), ja-JP (Japanese), ko-KR (Korean); “multi” when locales are merged for cohort sample sufficiency
Grade — raw (ungraded), certified (mid-grade third-party-graded equivalent), top-grade certified (gem-grade equivalent)
Vintage — vintage (pre-2003 era; e.g. early Pokémon Wizards block, MTG Reserved List), mature secondary (2003 to 2015; established legacy market), modern rotation (2016 to present; standard-legal or recently-rotated), nascent (current rotation set, less than 12 months from release)

Cells with insufficient sample emit with a wider confidence band. Empty cells emit no signal.

3 · Measurement

The methodology is rooted in the repeat-sales index lineage developed for fine art and other illiquid heterogeneous markets. Dissimilar items are not averaged together. Structural movement is measured inside each cohort cell.

The Vibe Score reflects how strongly prices within a cell are moving in coordination versus drifting independently. The direction indicator reflects the trajectory of that coordination over the most recent observation window.

4 · Maintenance

Constituents are reviewed quarterly. Set rotations, reprint events, and major reclassifications are processed under documented corporate-action rules. Each index is inception-dated forward only; historical reconstruction is not performed.

5 · Disclaimer

The tcgvibes Index Family is a structural benchmark. It is not investment advice, a price prediction, or a recommendation to buy or sell any card. Past structural movement does not indicate future market behavior.

See about for Vibe Score interpretation.